For release: 05/07/26

What a credible poll might look like

By Cal Thomas

Tribune Content Agency

            The headline in The Washington Post said: “Trump disapproval reaches new high, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds.” The sub headline read: “Democrats now hold a five-point advantage in support for Congress, up from two points in February.”

We’ve seen similar polls before. Many conservatives believe they are conducted in a way that discourages Republican voters and encourages Democrats, especially when they are conducted by media organizations conservatives view as favoring Democrats.

They are right to be suspicious. Just 2,500 people responded to the pollsters.

The list of issues to which the polled responded are job as president (negative 62 percent); cost of living (negative 76 percent); inflation (negative 72 percent); Iran conflict (negative 66 percent); relations with U.S. allies (negative 65 percent); the economy (negative 65 percent); taxes (negative 61 percent); immigration (negative 54 percent).

I suspect much of the negative approval is caused in part by Trump’s caustic personality, the name-calling, his putting down of others and his foul language. On the negative numbers about his overall performance, I question the depth of the knowledge of those being polled.

The cost of living, gas prices and inflation were far worse during the Biden administration. I know our attention span may be shorter than ever, but this might be a record failure to remember such recent conditions.

On taxes, high earners received the biggest refunds in years.

Here are questions I would have asked people had I been doing the polling to gauge whether their opinions are based on facts, or other factors.

• Do you recall the higher gas prices, higher inflation and overall economy during the Biden years?
• President Trump closed the southern border, but those Biden let in included criminals some of whom have assaulted and murdered U.S. citizens. Did you know that?
• Would you be OK if we did nothing and Iran completed its nuclear enrichment, created several bombs, put them on top of missiles, including ICBMs, and fired them at Israel and the East Coast of the United States?
• What are your news sources and how do you receive information? TikTok? MS NOW? The New York Times and Washington Post? CNN? Fox News? Conversations with friends? Teachers and professors?

How much one knows about a subject determines one’s opinion. If someone is what has been called a “low-information voter,” not going beyond the superficial can affect one’s opinion which may not be based on facts. Consider the declining poll numbers among Jewish voters of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who convinced many to vote for him with promises of free stuff because they have never lived under socialism, and Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, who ran as an undefined “moderate,” and now is governing like a far-left liberal.

Why do many voters get fooled almost every election cycle? It’s because they are not paying attention, or they are influenced by the increasingly negative political ads they see on television.  There’s another problem. A lot of people (mostly Republicans) refuse to speak with pollsters and thus the results are skewed.

Maybe the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll is right this time. Or maybe it isn’t. As always, it depends on turnout and whether enough voters want to return to the policies of the Biden years. The last presidential election showed they didn’t, but we do have short memories.

Readers may email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com. Look for Cal Thomas’ latest book “A Watchman in the Night: What I’ve Seen Over 50 Years Reporting on America” (HumanixBooks).

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